Jessica Isenhower

AOP in a Box

An annual operating plan (AOP) sets next year’s bookings target, then works out the pipeline, sellers, quotas, and comp needed to hit it. The hard part is getting those pieces to agree. This toolkit works through one plan for Coherence, a fictional software company, so every number is synthetic.

Sellers are $4.05M short before the year starts.

These are the baseline numbers the workspace and the workbooks start from. Required pipeline covers the full $24M in new and expansion bookings at the plan’s win rates.

FY27 plan reconciliationIllustrative SaaS scenario · synthetic data
Company bookings target$24.0M
Seller bookings target$18.0M
Fully ramped sellers9
Required annual pipeline$104.29M
Seller-carried target$18.0M75% of the $24M company target
→
Net seller capacity$13.95M$15.5M gross productivity, less 10% attrition
→
Capacity shortfall-$4.05MSeller target minus net capacity
Decision exposed

Raising quota doesn’t add capacity. To close the gap, leadership has to change something real: hire earlier, raise productivity, move more of the target off sellers, or lower the target.

A workspace, a guide, and ten workbooks

Change an assumption, see what moves

Adjust the bookings target, the sellers’ share, over-assignment, win rates, deal size, and attrition, and the capacity, quota, and pipeline views update. Changes last until you reload. Nothing is saved and there’s no live AI. An uploaded CSV gets its own review and doesn’t change the sample forecast.

Open the workspace →

How to run the planning cycle

A milestone calendar with stage gates, a playbook for each model, metric definitions, a comp-design checklist, decision rights, and a plan for the first 30 days after launch.

Open planning guide (.docx) →

What breaks when an input is wrong

The workspace covers some of these; starting ARR, retention, sales cycle, and hiring dates aren’t adjustable in it.

DecisionInput that mattersWhat breaks when it is wrong
Bookings targetStarting ARR, retention, growth target, timingEverything downstream inherits an impossible top line.
Pipeline requirementWin rate, deal size, sales cycle, source mixCoverage looks healthy while timing or conversion makes the target unreachable.
CapacityProductivity, ramp, attrition, hiring datesQuota gets assigned to sellers who haven’t been hired or ramped yet.
Territory + quotaMarket potential, seller capacity, account distributionSome sellers get impossible patches and some accounts get nobody.
CompensationCompany priorities, role behavior, quota designPeople get paid for behavior the plan doesn’t want.
ForecastActual results versus plan assumptionsYou learn about the miss after it happens, without knowing which assumption broke.

Who did what

My work
The planning logic: which decisions come first, what each model hands to the next, the operating assumptions, the reconciliation checks, what leadership needs to see, and how the workspace flows.
AI helped with
Code and formula scaffolding, sample data, interface iteration, documentation drafts, and adversarial review of the models.
What’s public
The workspace, the guide, and the ten workbooks above. The source code is in a private repository.
Still to prove
Whether it holds up for companies shaped differently from Coherence, how sensitive the results are to each assumption, and which checks matter most in a real planning cycle.